Medical school chances calculator

Data dates and current applications

Historical comparisons: the graduate results use the labelled 2026 intake cohort. Flinders and international comparisons include 2025 application-cycle reports. Undergraduate source years are stated in each school’s result. These datasets have not been relabelled as current cutoffs.

Current cycle: GEMSAS applications made in 2026 are for 2027 entry, and UCAT ANZ 2026 is used for relevant 2027 entry. Check the official GEMSAS dates and UCAT ANZ guidance. UCAT conversion and the displayed undergraduate references were reviewed on 9 September 2026. Graduate and international admissions models were not re-audited in that review.

Your data: the calculation runs locally and your latest plan is saved in this browser. Optional email delivery sends your address and plan to Key2MD. General completion events do not include score values or rural status. Newsletter signup is a separate choice.

How this calculator works

For undergraduate medicine, Australian universities do not share one common formula. Some use UCAT heavily, some use it only as a tiebreaker, and some do not use UCAT at all. The undergraduate calculator uses the official 2026 UCAT ANZ percentile lookup, checks the academic and study-stage information entered, and shows dated university-published comparisons where available. Missing cutoffs are left unknown.

The UCAT mode is most useful for school-leaver and recent school-leaver pathways at UNSW, WSU/CSU, JMP, UQ, Monash, Adelaide, Flinders, Curtin, UWA, UTAS, Griffith and related regional pathways. No personal interview or offer percentages are calculated. A test percentile is a position within that year’s test cohort. It is not a university admission probability.

For graduate medicine, most GEMSAS-consortium medical schools rank applicants for interview on a combo score: GPA / 7 + relevant GAMSAT / 100. The important detail is that the relevant GAMSAT score is not identical for every university.

Deakin, ANU, Griffith, UWA and Macquarie use the ACER overall GAMSAT score. UoM, UQ, UNDS and UNDF use the unweighted average of Sections 1, 2 and 3. For postgraduate medicine, CASPer is used only by UoW, UNDS and UNDF. The other postgraduate universities do not factor CASPer in at all.

The big strategy point: if your combo is below about 1.70, or only barely competitive for the normal GPA/GAMSAT schools, CASPer may be the highest-return part of the application only if UoW, Notre Dame Sydney or Notre Dame Fremantle are on your list. Students often spend years protecting GPA and one to three years chasing GAMSAT, then do very little CASPer preparation. That creates an opportunity: Q4 is more attainable than many students assume with deliberate practice, and it is worth a lot at those three postgraduate CASPer schools.

For example, a 1.65 combo may not feel comfortable for the University of Melbourne, where CASPer is not considered at all, but it can be extremely live at UNDS or UNDF with Q4 CASPer. UoW is even more CASPer-driven: once GPA and GAMSAT hurdles are cleared, interview ranking is driven by CASPer and bonuses rather than the usual combo.

If your GEMSAS GPA is below about 5.8, the calculator treats GPA as the major constraint. In that case, consider UoW if you clear the hurdles and can build CASPer plus bonuses. Separately, consider a new bachelor if GPA repair is realistic, or Honours only if you can reliably aim for First Class and are specifically targeting schools where that changes the GPA treatment, such as UQ.

This tool compares your combo score against the actual 2026 interview and rejection cohorts at ten Australian medical schools, using distributions calculated from student-submitted data. The range bars show where your score sits relative to median and 1 standard deviation of students who were offered an interview at each school - not the rejected cohort.

Why a "cutoff" isn't actually a hard number

University cutoffs vary every year based on the strength of the applicant pool, how many students ranked the school highly as a preference, and category-specific admission quotas (domestic, rural, bonded, etc). A cutoff that was 1.67 last year could be 1.69 this year. Use the cutoff line as a reasonable lower bound, not a firm threshold.

Schools with special rules

• WSU/CSU Medicine - Uses academic rank as a threshold, then UCAT section performance for interviews; final offers are heavily interview-weighted.
• JMP Medicine - Uses academic eligibility plus UCAT cognitive aggregate for assessment invitations; UCAT cutoffs are not published in advance.
• Griffith and UTAS - Are more ATAR-primary than UCAT-primary. UCAT acts as a secondary ranking/tiebreaker rather than the main gate.
• JCU and Bond - Do not use UCAT. JCU Medicine uses academic results and interview; Bond uses academic screening, psychometric testing and interview.
• University of Melbourne, University of Queensland, Notre Dame Fremantle and Notre Dame Sydney - Use the unweighted GAMSAT section average rather than the ACER overall weighted score.
• University of Notre Dame (Fremantle & Sydney) - Uses CASPer as a formal selection component alongside GPA, unweighted GAMSAT and bonuses. A student with a modest combo but a high CASPer (Q4) can still get interviewed, and vice versa.
• University of Wollongong (UoW) - Doesn't rank on combo. Uses GPA and GAMSAT hurdles, then a 50% Casper / 50% bonus ranking. With 12 equal bonuses, each selected bonus is about 4.17 points on the bonus half.
• University of Melbourne - Applies a "GAM" (Graduate Academic Marker) adjustment that can modify your raw ranking. The lowest observed interview combo may or may not reflect GAM application.

Where official formulas are published, this calculator now applies school-specific bonus handling: Deakin and ANU percentage adjustments, UQ/UWA/Griffith GPA overrides, Macquarie's capped GPA bonus, and UOW's 50% Casper / 50% bonus ranking estimate. CASPer is not applied to any other postgraduate school in this calculator because those schools do not use it. Where formulas are not published, the option is kept as a qualitative flag rather than an invented number.

For plain-English school-by-school rules, use the Australian medical school entry requirements guide. It breaks down Deakin bonuses, UOW CASPer ranking, UQ GPA overrides, Notre Dame CASPer selection, and the other GEMSAS school exceptions in one place.

Rural / priority category

Australian medical schools reserve a proportion of places for applicants from rural, regional, and remote backgrounds. Cutoffs for rural applicants are typically 0.08 to 0.20 combo points lower than non-rural cutoffs. The data for rural applicants is much sparser than for non-rural - treat rural results as a very loose guide and expect wider variation year-to-year.

Frequently asked questions

Disclaimer & data notes